How to read this page
Each card shows one game scored by four models. Each number is the named team’s win chance.
- QBElo (our model) — chess-style power rating, adjusted for the starting QB.
- Elo — the simpler rating, no QB adjustment.
- ML — a calibrated logistic model on form / rest / rating features.
- Vegas — the de-vigged moneyline (the benchmark).
Cards with an orange highlight are where our model and Vegas pick different winners — the interesting ones.
Where the Vegas lines come from: the schedules table published by nflverse — a free public aggregator. We convert both moneylines to a probability and de-vig by normalizing, so the home and away win % sum to 100%. The numbers here are a snapshot from the last data pull and will move between now and kickoff.