How to read this page
Each card shows one Week 1 game scored by four models. Each number is the named team’s win chance.
- QBElo (our model) — chess-style power rating, adjusted for the starting QB.
- Elo — the simpler rating, no QB adjustment.
- ML — a calibrated logistic model on form / rest / rating features.
- Vegas — the de-vigged moneyline (the benchmark).
Cards with an orange highlight are where our model and Vegas pick different winners — the interesting ones.
Where the Vegas lines come from: the schedules table published by nflverse — a free public aggregator. We convert both moneylines to a probability and de-vig by normalizing, so the home and away win % sum to 100%. The numbers here are a snapshot from the last data pull and will move between now and kickoff.
Caveat for today: 2026 QB starters aren’t in nflverse yet, so QBElo currently rides on each team’s end-of-2025 rating without a per-game QB adjustment. As starters are announced QBElo will diverge from Elo more, especially in backup-QB games.